2022 is the year when the "14th Five-Year Plan" development plan is fully implemented, and it is also the year when China Air Cargo faces challenges and seizes opportunities. This year, on the basis of coordinating operational safety and epidemic prevention and control, the air cargo industry will speed up network layout, improve operational capabilities, and improve market competitiveness, so as to promote the healthy and stable development of the cargo business in an all-round way.

China Air Cargo will continue to develop steadily

The global economy has continued to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down.In 2021, the global economy will gradually recover from the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the economy will grow by 5.5% year-on-year. Economic growth in the world's major economies has returned to pre-pandemic levels. As countries around the world continue to promote economic recovery and development, and some countries represented by China are making every effort to promote global cooperation in fighting the epidemic and economic development, as well as the promotion and popularization of the new crown vaccine, the global economy will continue to grow in 2022. However, due to the mutation of the new coronavirus, supply chain bottlenecks, labor shortages, high inflation, trade protection and other factors, the economic growth rate will slow down. In its Global Economic Outlook on January 11, the World Bank projected that the global economy will grow by 4.1 percent in 2022. In the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2022 released by the United Nations on January 13, the global economy will grow by 4% in 2022.

China's economy is facing challenges, but it is generally stable and improving. In 2021, China's GDP will reach 114 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, the largest increase in ten years; the total value of imports and exports of goods trade is 39.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%; the cumulative business volume of national express service enterprises 108.30 billion pieces were completed, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%. In 2022, although the external environment for development will become more complex, severe and uncertain, and economic development will face difficulties and challenges such as shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations, China's economy is resilient and has ample potential. will continue to develop for the better. On January 1, 2022, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement came into effect, which will generate more demand for air cargo and mail transportation. China's GDP growth target for 2022 is 5.5%. Both the World Bank and the United Nations predict that China's economic growth rate will exceed 5% in 2022. The stability and improvement of the global and Chinese economy has laid a solid foundation for the rapid development of China's air cargo.

Various policy support is the guarantee for the stable development of air cargo. At the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022, the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Modern Comprehensive Transportation System", "The 14th Five-Year Plan for Civil Aviation Development", "The 14th Five-Year Plan for the Construction of Modern Circulation System", "The General Office of the State Council on Plans and opinions such as the Opinions on Promoting the Integrated Development of Domestic and Foreign Trade and the Special Plan for the Development of Aviation Logistics during the 14th Five-Year Plan have been issued successively. The above plans and opinions clearly propose to build an efficient aviation logistics network, strengthen the construction of international aviation logistics capabilities, build a comprehensive freight hub, and develop professional and intelligent logistics services. At the same time, many governments have also issued the "14th Five-Year" air cargo development plan. The national and regional development plans have pointed out the direction and goals for the development of China's air cargo industry during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. CAAC attaches great importance to and vigorously promotes the rapid development of air cargo from the perspective of industry authorities. The successive promulgation of targeted policies such as "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-quality Development of Public Aviation Dangerous Goods Transport" and "International Cargo Air Rights Allocation Rules" also provide guidance for the specific development of air cargo. The 2022 National Civil Aviation Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to implement a more flexible policy on the allocation of international cargo air rights, establish a cargo and mail flight slot pool, optimize the cargo and mail slot supply policy, promote the capacity building of cargo support facilities at hub airports, and enhance the international competitiveness of aviation logistics enterprises. , to speed up the improvement of the airport's cargo security capacity and ensure the smooth operation of the Ezhou Cargo Airport.

Changes in the situation of the new crown epidemic affect the development trend of the freight industry

Since 2021, with the popularization of the new crown vaccine and the accumulation of epidemic prevention experience in various countries, the impact of the new crown epidemic on economic activities has gradually weakened, but the constantly changing new coronavirus strains have made the epidemic trend full of uncertainty. According to data released by the United Nations, the Omicron strain has spread to more than 150 countries and regions, and the epidemic in many countries has repeatedly hit new highs. The new crown epidemic has caused great losses to the global economy. According to the International Monetary Fund, by 2024, the losses caused by the new crown epidemic to the global economy will be higher than the previous estimate of 12.5 trillion US dollars. In recent years, trade protectionism and industrial policy adjustments have had an impact on the global supply chain. The impact of the new crown epidemic has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the supply chain, causing the supply chain to encounter the risk of rupture. In 2021 and January 2022, thanks to the stimulus policies of many countries and the promotion of the new crown vaccine, the global production demand will recover rapidly, even surpassing the level before the epidemic; Prosperous; masks, protective clothing, oxygen generators, testing kits, syringes, new crown vaccines and other anti-epidemic materials have become important categories of freight transportation. In terms of supply in the same period, due to the continuous congestion of ocean shipping and the China-Europe railway, the belly hold capacity of medium and long-distance passenger aircraft has been greatly reduced, and the further reduction of flights between China and the United States has been affected by multiple factors, and the supply of freight capacity is far from meeting the continuous growth of freight demand. This has also caused the cost of logistics and transportation to skyrocket. Air freight rates are 3-4 times higher than before the epidemic, and ocean freight rates are nearly 10 times higher. However, in February 2022, as many foreign countries "flattened" the epidemic, control was relaxed, and measures were cancelled, the demand for epidemic prevention materials dropped sharply, and the demand for production materials and cross-border e-commerce was relatively sluggish. The belly hold of passenger flights was restored, and the relationship between supply and demand was rapidly reversed due to changes in the epidemic situation, which directly led to a rapid decline in air freight rates. The air freight rate once fell below the level before the epidemic, and the freight rate per kilogram from China to Europe even dropped from 80 or 90 yuan per kilogram at the peak to more than 10 yuan per kilogram. With the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the price of crude oil has risen, some airspaces have been closed, many air routes have been suspended, and air capacity has begun to be in short supply. . The instability and uncertainty of international air cargo is on full display in early 2022. The subsequent world air cargo is very likely to move forward in this instability and uncertainty.

According to data released by the International Air Transport Association, global air cargo demand in 2021 will increase by 6.9% compared with 2019, which means that the development of world air cargo in 2021 will not only return to the situation before the epidemic, but also achieve a year-on-year growth. In 2021, China's civil aviation will complete 7.32 million tons of cargo and mail transportation, which has recovered to 97.2% of 2019. The recovery of China's air cargo is much better than that of air passenger transport. However, due to the high reliance on the belly of passenger aircraft, the low degree of specialization in cargo, and the small total number of cargo aircraft, the recovery and development are slightly behind the world as a whole. As the international business development of China Air Cargo in 2022 will be consistent with the overall development of global air cargo, the situation is changing at any time due to changes in the epidemic situation. In the construction of an international and domestic dual-cycle economic development system, while seizing opportunities in the international market, air cargo should fully tap its internal potential and strive to achieve rapid recovery and development of domestic business. How to actively and effectively respond to the rapid changes in the international air cargo situation, resist risks, seize opportunities, and make full use of the relatively stable domestic epidemic situation, improve operational efficiency, improve aircraft utilization, build freight products, and cultivate competitive advantages is the key to China in 2022. Real-world challenges facing the air cargo industry.

Air cargo companies and air cargo hubs continue to improve their competitiveness

Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the importance of air cargo to the safe and stable operation of the industrial chain and supply chain has become prominent, and the long-standing concept of "heavy passengers and light cargo" in China's civil aviation industry will accelerate its transformation into "equal emphasis on passengers and cargo" in 2022. Rapidly enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese air cargo companies and air cargo hubs, especially international competitiveness, has become the consensus of the industry. However, the improvement of air cargo capacity will not be achieved overnight, and requires continuous attention and systematic promotion. While promoting the synergy and integration of air freight and industrial layout, consumption pattern, and production enterprises, foreign trade enterprises, cross-border e-commerce, etc., it is necessary to focus on improving the overall service capability of freight enterprises to the supply chain, and promote the expansion of air freight network. Promote the improvement of ground support capabilities, and realize the improvement of the cargo and postal customs clearance environment and port service functions.

In 2022, air cargo companies will continue to expand their business models, improve the operational efficiency of all-cargo aircraft and "passenger-to-cargo" aircraft, and promote the increase in the belly cargo load factor of passenger aircraft in many ways, so as to continuously build industry advantages and continuously improve competitiveness. In 2022, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China Cargo, Shangzhou Logistics, Sichuan Airlines, etc. will further deepen the reform of mixed ownership, and continue to promote the process of freight specialization and integration. SF Group will fully integrate Kerry Logistics and other resources acquired in the previous stage, penetrate into the upstream and downstream of the supply chain, continue to increase the capacity of freighter aircraft, open more freight routes and flights, and promote the operation of Ezhou Huahu Cargo Airport. JD Logistics will further enhance the service capabilities of integrated supply chain logistics, speed up the pace of opening of JD Cargo Airlines, and continue to expand the international cargo charter business. Based on the mixed ownership reform of Air China Cargo, Cainiao will continue to increase the construction of overseas logistics infrastructure and open more cross-border logistics lines in 2022. Under the background of the shortage of freight capacity and soaring freight rates caused by the new crown epidemic, more and more Chinese freight companies such as Sinotrans and Hongkong Hongyuan have begun to lease freight capacity around the world and deeply participate in the competition in the air freight market. In 2022, air cargo companies will continue to struggle to become integrated logistics service providers.

In 2022, the development and construction of a comprehensive and professional air cargo hub will be accelerated. As the epidemic prevention and control becomes more precise and the prevention and control experience continues to accumulate, the airport will be able to better coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and cargo development. On the one hand, improve the management ability and governance level, strictly implement the "personal circle" and the same defense policy, guard the country's gates, and ensure that the airport and ports are not breached. During peak seasons and special needs, we will work together to deploy labor and equipment to fully prepare for the sustained and rapid development of freight forwarding. The comprehensive air cargo hubs whose total air cargo volume reached a historical peak last year are eager to try, and look forward to seizing the once-in-a-lifetime development opportunity of global air cargo during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to create greater glories. Tianjin, Chongqing and Xi'an, which are listed as the first batch of airport-type national logistics hubs, will give full play to the demonstration and leading role of airport logistics hubs to promote the freight business to a higher level. With the operation of Ezhou Huahu Airport in 2022, a substantial breakthrough will be made in the construction and development of China's professional air cargo hub. According to the plan, the cargo and mail throughput of Ezhou Huahu Airport will reach 2.45 million tons in 2025. At the same time, the Jiaxing Airport project will also start construction. The construction of an air cargo hub requires the strong support of freight companies, and the growth of air cargo companies requires the full support of the freight hub. The two promote each other and achieve each other.

Realize the safety and intelligent development of air cargo

In 2020, Ethiopian Airlines caught fire at Pudong Airport, in 2021, cargo on the tarmac of Hong Kong Airport caught fire, and in early 2022, the cargo plane of Aeroflot Airlines caught fire in Hangzhou, and so on. This series of fire incidents related to air cargo will be dealt with. The booming air cargo industry is sounding the alarm. Safety is the bottom line of the air transport industry, and only by maintaining safety can development be ensured. The extreme imbalance between cargo demand and capacity supply in the past two years has caused many safety hazards to air cargo. First, the quality of cargo planes cannot be guaranteed, and many planes that have been parked for many years have been operated after a short repair; The utilization rate of cargo aircraft has reached a record high, and the maintenance time of aircraft has been compressed or postponed; third, the “passenger-to-cargo” business, which is an expedient measure, lacks unified safety norms and standards; fourth, the epidemic has led to a surge in cross-border business demand , There are a wide variety of cross-border e-commerce goods with uneven quality, especially lithium battery goods. In order to ensure the sustainable, healthy and stable development of the industry, civil aviation authorities must strictly review the operating qualifications and hazardous goods qualifications of overseas aircraft; airlines must strictly implement the safety operation standards and requirements of the bureau; freight companies are leasing overseas cargo aircraft or "passenger-to-cargo" "When flying, you must fully understand the status of the airline and the aircraft, and conduct a safety risk assessment; the airport must operate according to the cargo situation and the plan for assembly and installation, and it can be handled quickly and properly in the event of an emergency; freight forwarders and customs declaration companies must declare truthfully. The situation of the goods must not be concealed and underreported; product manufacturers and exporters must improve product quality from the source and reserve a safety margin for transportation. Safety responsibility is more important than Mount Tai. In order to achieve the sustainable, stable and healthy development of the air cargo industry, all links in the air cargo supply chain must keep the bottom line of safety.

In 2022, China Air Cargo will continue to promote the electronic, digital and intelligentization of the industry. According to the International Air Transport Association, in 2021, the global avionics waybill will account for 75% of the total number of freight orders, and it is expected to reach 100% by the end of 2022. According to the data released by the Civil Aviation Administration of China in June 2021, in 2020, China's air cargo will use 1.8216 million electronic waybills. As far as I know, the usage rate of China's air cargo electronic waybill is lower than that of the world. In order to catch up with the 100% penetration rate of the global freight electronic waybill, in 2022, China's air cargo industry must speed up and catch up. In the past two years, in order to reduce the risk of the spread of the new coronavirus, contactless business processing has accelerated in many areas, especially the digitization of air cargo, including online booking and charter platforms launched by air cargo companies, air cargo transportation status and real-time location. Inquiry function, digital calculation for reasonable matching of flights, cargo volume and personnel, equipment, etc., these trends will be further deepened in 2022. At the same time, the long-standing problem of information islands of freight forwarders, airlines, cargo terminals, customs and other subjects in China's air cargo industry will be gradually resolved in 2022. As a new label for the development of smart logistics, drones will play a positive role in promoting the development of air cargo. Initially, small UAVs were used for terminal logistics distribution. With the invention and continuous improvement of large UAVs, UAVs have become larger and larger in the field of cargo transportation, with longer and longer flight times and longer voyages. In 2020, SF Express will use the FH-98 to carry out the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia route, with a maximum load of 1.5 tons, a flight altitude of 4,500 meters and a range of 1,200 kilometers; Zhongtong’s Hongyan UAV has a maximum load of 1.9 tons and a maximum range of 1,560 kilometers. A successful test flight with cargo in Xinjiang in January. In January 2022, the Civil Aviation Administration of China officially issued the approval letter and business license for the country's first regional logistics drone trial operation to Fengniao Technology, a large drone company under SF Express. After that, Fengniao Technology will take the lead in carrying out branch logistics transportation in Yulin and other places in the northwest. service, which marks the entry of drones into the stage of substantial cargo transportation. At present, China's drone technology is at the world's leading level, and freight companies, e-commerce companies, and drone companies are all actively deploying. Therefore, 2022 will be a critical year in the process of electronic, digital and intelligent air cargo in China.